FlightRisk scores a US domestic flight from 0 to 100 and shows every point: both airports, the FAA's live programs, storms along the route, and the aircraft that has to arrive before you can leave. No black box.
Most delays start at the origin. Every run assesses departure and arrival weather, current and forecast, before anything else is blamed.
Ground stops, ground delay programs, and airport delays are pulled live from FAA NAS status. Nothing is attributed to "weather" without that check.
Turbulence is a comfort question, not a delay question. Pilot reports along your route are shown by phase of flight, weighted for your aircraft type.
The cut points were set by backtesting against US Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time data, so each band corresponds to a real disruption rate rather than a guess. Every score comes with a line-item breakdown; zero-point lines are shown so you can see what was checked and found clean.
Data: aviationweather.gov, FAA NAS status, adsb.lol, AeroDataBox. FlightRisk is an information tool; it is not affiliated with any airline or the FAA and does not replace your airline's own notifications.